Forecasting the final penetration rate of online travel agencies in different hotel segments

Scaglione, Miriam (University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland (HES-SO Valais-Wallis)) ; Schegg, Roland (University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland (HES-SO Valais-Wallis))

This research uses data on distribution channels of hotels gathered through a yearly survey addressed to Swiss hotels since 2006. The authors use the evolution of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) market share as a time series which can be modelled using different growth curve methods. These various models cross-validate the forecasted final penetration rate. The study analyses the dynamics of the evolution of OTAs and determines their final penetration rate not only on an overall level, but also segmented by hotel category, location and size. Overall, a final penetration of around 35 % is predicted by our models, but they show also that the level of final penetration of OTAs depends on the typology of the hotel. The paper sheds some light on the statistical difficulties in forecasting with a limited set of data and gives insights into the future evolution of the distribution mix which is essential for the marketing and pricing strategy of hotels.


Keywords:
Conference Type:
full paper
Faculty:
Economie et Services
School:
HEG-VS
Institute:
ITO-Institut de Tourisme
Subject(s):
Economie/gestion
Publisher:
Bilbao, Spain, 2-5 February 2016
Date:
Bilbao, Spain
2-5 February 2016
2016
Pagination:
pp. 709-721
Published in:
Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2016 : proceedings of the International Conference in Bilbao, Spain, February 2-5, 2016
DOI:
Appears in Collection:

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 Record created 2016-10-04, last modified 2019-06-11

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