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Abstract

This paper estimates a structural econometric model to investigate the relationship between Swiss bilateral ODA and exports in the recipient countries based on a panel of 95 recipient countries over 51 years. More precisely, an augmented gravity model of trade is used to quantify the impact of Swiss bilateral official development assistance on its own bilateral exports to the recipient countries. Results point towards a return on aid through exports of 0.59 USD for each 1 USD donated in the short run (static model) and of up to 1.73 USD in the long run (dynamic model). These effects (magnitude and significance) vary substantially when groups of recipient countries are formed on the basis of their geographical location or on the magnitude of bilateral aid or export flows they receive from Switzerland. In particular, return on ODA turns out to be statistically significant if ODA is directed toward countries to which Switzerland exports the least but donates the most or toward African or Asian countries (rather than to Latin American or European countries). Thus, despite the fact that Switzerland is considered as one of the most altruistic donors (it donates a high share of untied aid), bilateral aid has still a considerable economic impact on Switzerland through exports.

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