The short -and long-run hotel demand in Switzerland : a weighted marcoeconomic approach

Bianchi, Giuliano (Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland) ; Chen, Yong (Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland)

This study develops a vector error correction model of hotel demand to incorporate both the short-run demand fluctuations and the long-run tourism growth. We distinguish between endogenous and exogenous variables in model development to advance previous tourism demand modeling. In addition, we develop a weighting scheme to account for the importance of explanatory economic variables that are pertinent to a source market of a destination to increase model accuracy. With an analysis of the Swiss hotel data from the first quarter of 1975 to the fourth of 2016, we found no evidence for the long-run market equilibrium of the three endogenous variables, namely hotel nights, real GDP of Switzerland, and real exchange rate of the Swiss franc. However, the short-run tourism demand depends largely on behavior persistence of tourists, which may have obscured the relationship between tourism demand and other economic variables.


Keywords:
Conference Type:
full paper
Faculty:
Economie et Services
School:
EHL
Institute:
Aucun institut
Subject(s):
Economie/gestion
Publisher:
Lausanne, Switzerland, 27-28 June 2019
Date:
2019-06
Lausanne, Switzerland
27-28 June 2019
Pagination:
43 p.
Published in:
Proceedings of the 3rd annual Hospitality Finance & Economics Conference
Appears in Collection:

Note: The status of this file is: restricted


 Record created 2019-11-08, last modified 2019-11-28

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