Robust and resilient renovation solutions in different climate change scenarios

Galimshina, Alina (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Zürich, Switzerland) ; Moustapha, Maliki (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Zürich, Switzerland) ; Hollberg, Alexander (Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden) ; Padey, Pierryves (School of Management and Engineering Vaud, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland) ; Lasvaux, Sébastien (School of Management and Engineering Vaud, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland) ; Sudret, Bruno (Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden) ; Habert, Guillaume (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Zürich, Switzerland)

Building renovation is currently urgent in order to decrease the energy consumption of a building stock. In order to achieve robust renovation scenarios, uncertainty quantification is needed. Climate change scenarios are important factors and need to be included in the analysis. In this paper, three climate change scenarios are applied probabilistically for a renovation scenario using dimensionality reduction techniques and further uncertainty propagation. The results show that RCP2.6 provides more robust results and saves on average 2. 105 CHF and 2. 105kgCO2eq. in a building life cycle comparing to RCP 8.5. The analysis under climate change is also compared to the probabilistic calculations under current climate and the results show the underestimation of both costs and environmental impacts when climate change is not included. It can also be clearly seen that even under the best case of RCP 2.6, building renovation is urgently needed to decrease the environmental impacts and costs.


Conference Type:
published full paper
Faculty:
Ingénierie et Architecture
School:
HEIG-VD
Institute:
IGT - Institut de Génie Thermique
Publisher:
Göteborg, Sweden, 2-4 November 2020
Date:
2020-11
Göteborg, Sweden
2-4 November 2020
Pagination:
9 p.
Published in:
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science ; BEYOND 2020 – World Sustainable Built Environment conference, 2-4 November 2020, Göteborg, Sweden
Numeration (vol. no.):
2020, vol. 588, 1.06-1.10, article no. 032042
DOI:
ISSN:
1755-1315
Appears in Collection:



 Record created 2020-12-16, last modified 2020-12-22

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