A re-examination of the tourism-led growth hypothesis : the case of New Zealand

Bianchi, Giuliano (Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland) ; Sahli, Mondher (Ecole hôtelière de Lausanne, HES-SO // University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland) ; Vici, Laura (University of Bologna, Italy)

This study seeks to examine the causal relationships among changes in inbound tourism, economic growth and the real exchange rate in New Zealand from 1987 to 2013. We use the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to tes t the impact of tourism on the New Zealand economy. The variables of interest used in this study are: the index of real exchange rate between the NZ dollar and currencies of the 14 New Zealand’s top trading partners, the travel export in New Zealand and th e real GDP of New Zealand. The variables contain all a unit root and are collected at quarterly frequency from 1990 to 2013. The model is fitted first for the whole period from 1990 to 2013 and then for the two sub periods anticipating and following the 20 08 financial meltdown (i.e. 1990 - 2008 and 2008 - 2013). The results show that before the global financial crisis (GFC) the variables were linked by long run relationships that then disappeared once the GFC hit New Zealand. Between 1990 and 2008, an increase in GDP leaded to an appreciation while a depreciation of the exchange rate leaded to an increase in tourist receipts in the long run. In the short run, an increase of tourist receipts leaded to an appreciation for both the entire period and the sub period following the financial crisis while an increase in GDP leaded to an appreciation only for the sub - period from 2008 to 2013 .

Type de conférence:
full paper
Economie et Services
Adresse bibliogr.:
Hong Kong, China, 30 June - 3 July 2015
Hong Kong, China
30 June - 3 July 2015
18 p.
Publié dans
Proceedings of the International Association for Tourism Economic (IATE) conference 2015
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